GBP/USD Daily Price Forecast – 23rd September 2025

GBPUSD Technical Analysis

Overview

• Price action on the H1 chart shows a strong impulsive decline followed by a basing phase and a constructive series of higher lows—typical of an early-stage corrective rebound within a broader down move.

• The chart you provided highlights a tactical buy-stop at 1.35285, a protective stop at 1.34988, and a first target at 1.35736. That plan aims to catch a breakout from the current consolidation.

Market Structure

• Primary trend (recent sessions): bearish impulse, then stabilization. The latest swing sequence on H1 has shifted from lower lows to a higher low, signaling loss of bearish momentum.

• Key levels visible on the chart:

  • Resistance/Breakout zone: 1.3525–1.3530 (cluster of recent highs; liquidity pocket).

  • Next resistance/TP area: 1.3565–1.3575 (prior breakdown zone; supply reaction likely).

  • Near-term support: 1.3500–1.3505 (round number and intraday shelf).

  • Deeper support/invalidation: 1.3475–1.3485 (base of the recent recovery leg).

Momentum and Candles

• The push off the recent lows formed multiple bullish candles with shallow pullbacks—momentum characteristic of a corrective rally.

• Sellers defended the 1.352x area several times. A clean H1 close above 1.3530 would confirm a break of supply and open space to 1.3570/80.

Fibonacci/Confluence

• The 1.3525–1.3575 band aligns with a typical 50–61.8% retracement zone of the last H1 downswing (confluence with previous horizontal structure). This makes it a logical area for either:

  • A measured breakout continuation if reclaimed and held, or

  • A fade if price rejects it with strong wicks.

Trade Setup From the Chart

• Entry: Buy stop 1.35285 (triggers only if price proves itself above the immediate cap).

• Stop-loss: 1.34988 (below intraday support and beneath the last higher low).

• Take-profit: 1.35736 (into the overhead supply).

• Risk/Reward: ~30 pips risk for ~45 pips reward ≈ 1:1.5. This is attractive for an initial leg of a corrective move.

Trade Management Ideas

• If triggered, consider:

  • Reduce risk or move to breakeven after an H1 close above 1.3545–1.3550 or after +20 pips in favor.

  • Trail below successive higher lows on M30/H1 if momentum extends beyond 1.3575. Extension targets could be 1.3600 and 1.3620 if there’s a daily close reclaiming 1.3575.

• If price fails to hold above 1.3525 and drops back under 1.3500 with a heavy candle, that warns of a bull trap—respect the stop and reassess around 1.3480/60 for fresh structure.

Alternative Scenario (Bearish Rejection)

• A strong rejection from 1.3525–1.3575, especially with long upper wicks and increasing bearish volume, could rotate price back to:

  • 1.3500/1.3498 (first demand test),

  • then 1.3475–1.3460 if that breaks.

• Bears would seek an H1 lower high beneath 1.3525 to reassert downside control.

What Could Add Fuel

• London/NY session liquidity often drives breaks from narrow ranges; watch for the breakout to occur near session overlaps.

• Data risk: High-impact UK or US releases can invalidate short-term structures. Consider pausing entries within 15–30 minutes of major prints.

Checklist Before Execution

• H1 close above 1.3530? Yes → breakout has higher odds.

• Pullback hold above 1.3520 after the break? Yes → adds confidence.

• Spreads/volatility normal? Yes → place order per plan.

Bottom line

• Bias: Tactically bullish above 1.3525 with room toward 1.3570/80; structurally neutral-to-bearish unless price converts 1.3575 into support on closing basis.

• Invalidation: An H1 close below 1.3495 undermines the breakout thesis and puts 1.3475–1.3460 back in play.