AUDUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 15th Aug to 19th Aug 2016

Without a doubt, the best-performing currencies against the greenback are the commodity currencies and the AUDUSD enjoyed a nice run over the last couple of weeks. The latest RBA rate cut was not enough to keep Aussie down for a long time as the short-lived sell-off in the aftermath of the RBA rate cut was quickly fading away and the rally extended to almost retest the 2016 highs. The AUDUSD exchange rate has found a high at 0.7760 but it has quickly sold off after weaker than expected Chinese Industrial production data.

Commodity based currencies are expected to outperform in the coming week as well and the 0.7646 -07610 area of support zone not only that it can stop the Friday’s sell-off, but it can be the starting point for the next leg higher that can send AUDUSD to challenge the 0.7833 which is also the 2016 highest price. We don’t have much resistance in the way which is constructive for the bullish case, while at the same time there is plenty of support at the 200-day EMA and the rising trendline that connects the lows from the May low.

Fundamentally speaking, on Tuesday 16th of August, we have the RBA Minutes which is a detailed report of the RBA’s most recent meeting when they cut the benchmark interest rate to 1.50% a new record low level. Thursday will bring the Australian Labor statistic figures, and with the Australian employment figures being at a record high the market consensus sees further growth in the labor market with the Employment Change data expected to inch higher to 11k new jobs from 7.9k, while the Unemployment rate is expected to come steadily at 5.8%, which can be bullish for Aussie.

AUDCAD Weekly Forex Forecast – BEARISH