The AUDUSD technical price pattern is stuck in a wide consolidation zone established since we hit 0.7760 back in August. The technical support of this range zone comes between 0.7430-07400 zones from where we can expect a bounce. More immediate and more important support is the big psychological number 0.7500. However, as long as we stay above the 0.7500 we can still see a bounce and a retest of the 0.7600 resistance level and the 200-day EMA.
A bounce from the 0.7500 area is also supported by the stochastic indicator which is showing oversold conditions and increases the likelihood of a rally.We have a lot of major risk events that can disrupt the market volatility this coming week. On Tuesday, the traders need to pay attention to the RBA rate decision which is a major catalyst for the AUD exchange rates. There is a growing risk of potentially another rate cut due to subdued inflation figures. We don’t have a market consensus as they view are split on whether or not the RBA will cut the rates.
On Thursday we have the Trade Balance figures during the Asia session and on Friday the RBA Monetary Policy Statement that can potentially trigger some market volatility.
AUDUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 31st Oct to 4th Nov 2016 – BEARISH
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