AUD/NZD Daily Price Forecast – 16th July 2025

Chart Overview

• Timeframe: H4 (4-hour)

• Indicators: Two moving averages (likely 50-period in yellow and 200-period in red)

• Trade Setup:

  • Buy Stop: 1.09728

  • Take Profit (TP): 1.10043

  • Stop Loss (SL): 1.09391

Trend Analysis

• Current Trend: The pair is in a strong uptrend, as evidenced by the recent series of higher highs and higher lows.

• Moving Averages:

  • The yellow (shorter period) MA is above the red (longer period) MA, confirming bullish momentum.

  • Both MAs are sloping upwards, further supporting the bullish bias.

Key Levels

• Buy Stop (1.09728): This is set just above recent resistance, suggesting a breakout strategy. The price is expected to continue higher if it breaks this level.

• Take Profit (1.10043): This level is set near the next resistance zone, which aligns with previous price action highs.

• Stop Loss (1.09391): Placed below recent support and the moving averages, providing a buffer against false breakouts.

Price Action

• Recent Movement: The pair has rallied sharply from the 1.0780–1.0800 region, breaking above previous consolidation and resistance zones.

• Consolidation: There is a minor consolidation just below the buy stop, indicating a potential buildup before a breakout.

• Volume (not shown): If volume increases on the breakout, it would further validate the move.

Trade Rationale

• Bullish Momentum: The alignment of moving averages and the strong upward price action support a bullish outlook.

• Breakout Play: The buy stop is strategically placed to catch a continuation of the uptrend if resistance is broken.

• Risk Management: The stop loss is tight but reasonable, protecting against a reversal while allowing room for normal volatility.

Potential Risks

• False Breakout: If the price spikes above 1.09728 but fails to hold, it could trigger the stop loss.

• Overbought Conditions: After a strong rally, there is a risk of a pullback or correction.

• Fundamental Factors: Any unexpected news from Australia or New Zealand could impact the trade.

Summary Table

Conclusion

The AUD/NZD H4 chart shows a clear bullish trend with a well-defined breakout setup. The trade plan aims to capitalize on continued upward momentum, with prudent risk management in place. Watch for confirmation on the breakout and monitor for any reversal signals.

Note: Always consider fundamental factors and adjust your position size according to your risk tolerance.