
The AUD/USD has closed above the 200 EMA and the Stochastic indicator is also showing a built up in bullish momentum. The reaction higher from the 0.7500 big round number and the unwillingness to break below it suggest that the bulls are still in control of this market. Earlier in the week we should expect a retest of the 0.7550, intraday support level before a resumption of the bullish trend.
The AUD/USD technical pattern suggests first a failed retest of the 0.7730 before the real breakout to happen so we’re looking for more consolidation but in the end, the upside should prevail. Only a break below the big psychological figure 0.7500 will invalidate our view.
The economic calendar looks busy and Monday will bring the Trade Balance figures which have shown the trade deficit narrowed due to the increase in gold exports this should sustain our bullish forecast. On Wednesday traders need to keep an eye on the RBA Assistant Governor Edey is due to speak at the Australian Financial Review Retail Summit, in Melbourne. Friday we have China Manufacturing figures which are expected to still show expansion in the manufacturing sector as the general consensus is for a reading above the 50 mark which should be bullish for AUD/USD.
Price might be retreating to test support this coming week and from the looks of things, support should hold and pass this test. We expect the AUDUSD to start the week lower but towards the end of the week, AUDUSD should likely end higher – perhaps testing resistance.
AUDUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 19th to 23rd Sept 2016 – BULLISH
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