CAD/JPY Daily Price Forecast – 30th July 2025

Chart Overview

• Timeframe: H4 (4-hour)

• Indicators:

  • 50-period Moving Average (Yellow)

  • 200-period Moving Average (Red)

• Key Levels:

  • Sell Stop: 107.369

  • Take Profit (TP): 107.017

  • Stop Loss (SL): 107.778

Technical Analysis

Trend Analysis

• Recent Trend: The pair has been in an uptrend, as seen by the series of higher highs and higher lows. However, recent price action shows a break below the 50-period MA and a test of the 200-period MA, indicating potential trend exhaustion or reversal.

• Moving Averages:

  • The price has crossed below both the 50-period and 200-period MAs, which is a bearish signal.

  • The 50-period MA is flattening and may cross below the 200-period MA if bearish momentum continues (potential “death cross”).

Support and Resistance

• Immediate Resistance: 107.778 (also the SL level), which was previously a support level and now acts as resistance after the breakdown.

• Immediate Support: 107.017 (TP level), which is a recent swing low and a logical target for a short position.

Trade Setup

• Sell Stop @ 107.369: This entry is just below the recent support, aiming to catch a bearish continuation if the price breaks lower.

• Stop Loss @ 107.778: Placed above the recent consolidation and moving averages, protecting against a false breakdown.

• Take Profit @ 107.017: Targeting the next significant support level, offering a favorable risk-reward ratio.

Candlestick Patterns

• The recent candles show strong bearish momentum with long red bodies, confirming selling pressure.

• No significant bullish reversal patterns are visible at the moment.

Risk Management

• Risk-Reward Ratio: The distance from entry (107.369) to SL (107.778) is about 41 pips, while the distance to TP (107.017) is about 35 pips. The risk-reward is close to 1:1, slightly less favorable, but acceptable if the bearish momentum is strong.

• Volatility: The pair has shown increased volatility, so ensure position sizing is appropriate.

Fundamental Considerations

• CAD/JPY is sensitive to oil prices (impacting CAD) and risk sentiment (impacting JPY as a safe haven).

• Monitor upcoming economic data from Canada and Japan, as well as global risk sentiment, which could influence the pair.

Summary & Recommendation

• Bias: Bearish below 107.369

• Trade Plan:

  • Sell Stop: 107.369

  • Stop Loss: 107.778

  • Take Profit: 107.017

• Confirmation: Wait for a clear break and close below 107.369 on the H4 chart for confirmation before entering the trade.