CHF/JPY Daily Price Forecast – 21st February 2025

The chart represents a CHF/JPY (Swiss Franc/Japanese Yen) currency pair on the H4 (4-hour) timeframe. It includes technical indicators, key levels, and trade signals generated by the EliteSwingTrader (C) Indicator. The chart suggests a long trade setup with specific entry, stop-loss, and take-profit levels.

Key Observations

1. Trade Setup

• Buy Stop Entry: The trade setup suggests entering a long position at 167.642.

• Stop Loss (SL): The stop-loss level is set at 167.068, which is slightly below the entry point to limit potential losses.

• Take Profit (TP): The take-profit level is set at 168.300, indicating the target price for the trade.

2. Momentum and Confirmation

• The EliteSwingTrader Indicator is analyzing the price action and momentum:

  • Momentum is confirmed near the 167.600 level.

  • The indicator waits for candlestick confirmation before signaling the trade.

  • A long trade is confirmed by Japanese candlestick patterns, prompting the “ENTER NOW” signal.

3. Technical Levels

• Round Levels: The chart highlights the importance of round levels (e.g., 167.500, 167.600) as psychological support and resistance zones.

• Price Action: The price is consolidating near the entry level, suggesting a potential breakout to the upside.

4. Moving Average

• A green moving average line is plotted on the chart:

  • The price is currently trading below the moving average, indicating a bearish trend in the short term.

  • However, the trade setup anticipates a reversal or breakout above the moving average.

5. Risk-Reward Ratio

• Entry to Stop Loss: The risk is approximately 57.4 pips (167.642 – 167.068).

• Entry to Take Profit: The reward is approximately 65.8 pips (168.300 – 167.642).

• Risk-Reward Ratio: The ratio is approximately 1:1.15, which is slightly favorable for the trade.

Analysis of the Trade Setup

Strengths

• Clear Entry and Exit Points: The chart provides well-defined entry, stop-loss, and take-profit levels, making the trade plan structured and disciplined.

• Momentum Confirmation: The use of momentum and candlestick confirmation adds reliability to the trade setup.

• Psychological Levels: The trade aligns with key round levels, which often act as strong support or resistance zones.

Weaknesses

• Trend Context: The price is below the moving average, indicating a bearish trend. The trade relies on a potential reversal, which carries higher risk.

• Risk-Reward Ratio: While positive, the risk-reward ratio is not significantly favorable, which may deter some traders.

Opportunities

• Breakout Potential: If the price breaks above the moving average and sustains momentum, it could lead to a strong bullish move.

• Short-Term Reversal: The trade setup anticipates a reversal, which could provide quick profits if successful.

Threats

• False Breakouts: The price may fail to sustain above the entry level, leading to a stop-loss hit.

• Market Volatility: External factors, such as news or economic events, could disrupt the trade setup.

Conclusion

The chart presents a long trade setup for CHF/JPY with a buy stop at 167.642, a stop loss at 167.068, and a take profit at 168.300. The trade is based on momentum confirmation and candlestick patterns, with a slight edge in the risk-reward ratio. However, the bearish trend and reliance on a reversal add risk to the setup. Traders should monitor price action closely and ensure candlestick confirmation before entering the trade.