EUR/USD Daily Price Forecast – 18th September 2025

EURUSD: Testing 1.1840 Pivot — Breakout or Bull Trap?

Overview EURUSD’s H1 structure shows a steady grind higher from recent lows, followed by a sharp pullback and a quick recovery into a key pivot around 1.1840–1.1850. The chart you shared highlights a tactical breakout plan: Buy Stop at 1.18415, TP at 1.19143, and SL at 1.17716. That placement frames a classic continuation attempt back toward the prior spike high near 1.1910–1.1920 while respecting the most recent swing support near 1.1770.

Technical Picture (H1)

• Trend/Structure: The pair carved out higher highs and higher lows into 1.1860–1.1880, then retraced sharply, found bids above 1.1770, and rebounded. That keeps the broader intraday bias cautiously bullish, provided 1.1770–1.1780 holds.

• Key Pivot: 1.1840–1.1850 is the intraday battleground (prior congestion and breakdown/reclaim zone). Acceptance above this band typically unlocks a push toward 1.1890/1.1910.

• Overhead Supply: 1.1910–1.1925 is visibly heavy; there was a tall rejection wick there. Expect first-touch supply on the approach.

• Support Shelf: 1.1770–1.1780 is the immediate invalidation area for the bullish idea. A clean break below likely reopens 1.1730/1.1700.

Levels to Watch

• Resistance: 1.1840–1.1850 (pivot), 1.1890, 1.1910–1.1925 (target/supply).

• Support: 1.1810–1.1820 (minor intraday), 1.1770–1.1780 (major), 1.1730 (secondary).

Trade Plan (as per the chart)

• Entry: Buy Stop at 1.18415 (confirmation on reclaim of the pivot).

• Stop-Loss: 1.17716 (below the recent reaction low and support shelf).

• Take-Profit: 1.19143 (into known supply).

• Reward/Risk: Roughly 1.0–1.1R to the stated TP. Given the tight margin to overhead supply, consider an adaptive exit to improve R.

Execution Notes

• Confirmation: After trigger, look for 15–60 minute candle closes holding above 1.1840 to confirm acceptance. Failure to hold the pivot after triggering increases bull-trap risk.

• Scaling Out: Consider partials at 1.1885–1.1895 (pre-supply) and trail the remainder toward 1.1910–1.1925. A simple approach: move stop to breakeven once +25–30 pips in profit.

• If Rejected: A false break that pops above 1.1840 and swiftly closes back below is a short setup back to 1.1810 and 1.1770. For tactical shorts, you’d want a clear failure pattern (engulfing/rejection wick) and momentum confirmation.

Alternative Scenarios

• Bullish Extension

• Catalyst: Strong USD data miss or EUR-positive headlines; broad risk-on tone.

• Action: Sustained hold above 1.1850, quick test of 1.1890, then 1.1910–1.1925. If 1.1925 breaks and holds, next extension targets cluster around 1.1960–1.1980.

• Range Reversion

• Catalyst: Mixed data, indecisive risk tone.

• Action: Whipsaw around 1.1840 with fades working between 1.1810–1.1890 until a higher-timeframe impulse resolves the range.

• Bearish Breakdown

• Catalyst: Strong US yields or hawkish Fed repricing; risk-off.

• Action: Clean break below 1.1770 opens 1.1730 and 1.1700. Bulls step aside until price reclaims 1.1810/1.1840.

Macro/Catalyst Watchlist

• US: CPI/PCE, NFP, ISM PMIs, Treasury yield direction, Fed commentary.

• Eurozone: HICP inflation prints, PMIs, ECB guidance (rate path, balance sheet), growth surprises (Germany in particular).

• Cross-asset: Equity risk tone, energy prices (impacting EU terms of trade), and broad USD liquidity.

Risk Management Tips

• Size for the worst case: Base position on the full SL distance (~70 pips) so one loss stays within your risk budget (e.g., 0.5–1% of equity).

• Volatility filter: If hourly ATR expands sharply right before entry (e.g., news impulse), consider waiting for the first post-news consolidation before engaging.

• Time-of-day: Liquidity and follow-through tend to improve into London/NY overlap; be cautious with Asia-session breakouts that lack volume.

Bottom Line The immediate battle is at 1.1840–1.1850. A firm reclaim and hold favors a measured continuation into 1.1890 and 1.1910–1.1925, where supply thickens. Failure to sustain above the pivot invites another rotation toward 1.1810 and 1.1770. Trade the reaction at the pivot, respect the invalidation at 1.1770, and be ready to adapt around 1.1910–1.1925 where profit-taking pressure is likely.