EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 13th to 17th Feb 2017

Technical Outlook: After the EURUSD posted a doji near the resistance level of 1.0820, price action fell sharply lower in a steady trend that saw lower lows and lower highs. Price close just a few pips above 1.0600 support level and any bounce off the current levels remains a sell into 1.0600 support. This is also seen by the Stochastics currently in the oversold levels and could indicate a near term bounce to the upside. The weekly chart has formed a strong bearish candle and we expect a bounce back to 1.0698 which will be a good level to add to the short positions once again towards 1.0600.

Fundamental Outlook: A busy week for the euro as focus turns to the flash GDP estimates for the fourth quarter of 2016. Germany, Italy will be releasing the quarterly figures alongside the Eurozone’s total GDP for the quarter. Initial estimates point to a 0.5% quarterly growth in GDP for Germany, which is slightly higher from the third quarter’s 0.2% increase. The Eurozone’s quarterly GDP is expected to also increase 0.5%. Inflation figures will also be coming out this week, with Germany’s final inflation expected to decline 0.6%. In terms of forward looking indicators, Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment data is coming out on Tuesday and it is expected to show a modest decline from 16.6 to 15.1 while for the Eurozone, the ZEW economic sentiment is expected to fall to 22.3 from 23.2.

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