Technical Outlook: EURUSD has moved into a ranging pattern for the most part of this year. On the smaller time frame, the sideways pattern is more evidenced by the resistance price level at 1.120 and the support price level at 1.10. On the 4-hour chart, Friday saw a retest of the falling trend line, formed by connecting the highs of 1.1591 from May 3 and 1.1353 high from June 23. We can see price action moving within an ascending wedge pattern and a breakout from this level could see EURUSD retest the 1.10 support level once again if EURUSD breaks down below 1.1139. The bearish bias will be invalidated if EURUSD closes back above 1.120.
Fundamental Outlook: The week ahead is fairly quiet from the Eurozone with the Eurozone final CPI data out on August 18th. Therefore expect the US economic data to do most of the heavy lifting. On Tuesday, August 16th, the July inflation report will be due which is expected to show a soft print which will be followed by Wednesday’s FOMC meeting minutes which could bring about some volatility in EURUSD.
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