EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 15th to 19th May 2017
Technical Outlook: EURUSD broke out from the rising wedge pattern as noted last week and fell to 1.0850 where a minor support level developed. This led to prices bouncing back on Friday and the EURUSD is now within reach of testing the break out level at 1.0950. This reversal is ideal to renew short positions in EURUSD as price action is likely to push back lower again, targeting 1.0735. However, following the reversal at 1.0950, watch for price to break 1.0850 support, failing which we could expect to see a bullish trend emerge. The bearish bias will be invalidated on a close above 1.0950 on a daily basis and above the previous high at 1.1018.
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Fundamental Outlook: With the political headwinds receding and the broader economic outlook starting to brighten, the common currency will be back to focusing on the fundamentals. This week, data is expected to confirm a rebound in both the headline and core consumer prices that could see further pressure being put on ECB officials to cut the QE program. The Central bank came under pressure last week as ECB president, Mario Draghi was questioned by lawmakers from Netherlands. Besides the inflation figures, the German ZEW economic sentiment is also expected to rise higher for the month of May, which could be positive for the euro.
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