EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 24th to 28th Dec 2018
The week ahead is expected to be quiet as the holiday season kicks in. This marks periods of low volatility and liquidity leading to erratic price movements in the currency pairs. Therefore, it is best to stay on the sidelines until the liquidity picks up. The economic calendar for the week ahead will see mostly second tier data coming out. This could potentially be the catalyst for erratic price action. The week starts off with the Bank of Japan’s core inflation data coming out on Wednesday. The BoJ’s core CPI is forecast to rise 0.6% marking the same pace of increase as the month before.
The BoJ Governor Kuroda is also due to speak later on Thursday which could keep the yen a bit volatile. Retail sales and preliminary industrial production figures mark the economic data from Japan for the rest of the week. The euro markets are closed on Monday and Tuesday. Economic data over the week will see the preliminary inflation data from Germany. Economists polled forecast that German inflation increased 0.3% during December. However, given the recent drop in fuel prices there is a big chance that inflation could miss estimates. Data from the U.S. is relatively quiet with only second tier information such as the Chicago PMI and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index report coming out over the week.
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Chart set up: The EURUSD currency pair failed to validate the head and shoulders pattern last week. As a result, price action reversed the declines mid-way and pushed higher. The reversal led to a rally in the EURUSD which is now seen capped near the resistance level of 1.1449 – 1.1463 region. The support in the mean time remains at 1.1241.
Key support/resistance levels:
Support: 1.1241; Resistance: 1.1449 – 1.1463
The EURUSD is expected to maintain this range in the medium term. We can expect the trend to form only on a breakout from the resistance or the support level. Until then, the EURUSD is expected to trade flat. It is ideal to not take a position under the current circumstances as volatility could rise while prices tend to stay flat. In the near term, watch for price bounce off the levels and stay on the sidelines until the longer term picture is more clear. For the week ahead, the EURUSD is forecast to remain flat.
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