Technical Outlook: The EURUSD has been trading in a range for the past few months already. Price action is seen establishing support near 1.1881 while to the upside, resistance has been formed at 1.2060. We expect this range to continue further until the clouds clear over the ECB’s actions. This could mean that EURUSD will remain range bound into October until the ECB’s next monetary policy meeting occurs. The risks are balanced in either direction. We can expect further gains to come only on a breakout above 1.2060 while we can expect some declines below 1.1881. Currently, price action has posted a lower which suggests the likely dip to 1.1825 where the next major support exists. To the upside, gains will be limited to 1.2060.
Fundamental Outlook: The week ahead is expected to remain a quiet one for the euro. On the economic calendar, most of the data points are limited to second tier data and flash estimates. Data from Germany will focus on the Ifo business climate while French, Italy, Germany and Spain will be releasing the flash inflation estimates. This later comes down to the Eurozone flash inflation estimates for the month of September. In August, data last week showed that consumer prices rose to a 4-month high at 1.5% but core consumer prices remained stable at 1.2%. A continued uptick in inflation is likely to bode well for the euro. Besides the above, German retail sales and import prices data could also shed light on Eurozone’s largest economy. The German election might change everything if there is a big surprise. If there is… expect a gap in price and forget about everything else. It’s best to stay at the sidelines on Monday until things settle down…
Previous EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast
EURUSD Weekly Forex Forecast – 25th to 29th Sept 2017
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