GBP/USD Daily Price Forecast – 15th September 2025

GBPUSD: Breakout Watch Above 1.3575 – Setup, Levels, and Trade Plan

Overview GBPUSD has carved out a constructive H1 structure after recovering from recent swing lows. Price is compressing just beneath a well‑defined resistance shelf at 1.3575–1.3600, forming a flat‑top/ascending consolidation. Repeated tests of the ceiling without deeper pullbacks suggest building upside pressure.

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Key Technical Levels

• Immediate resistance: 1.3575–1.3600 (multi‑touch cap; breakout trigger zone)

• Near‑term support: 1.3530–1.3540 (range base and last higher‑low cluster)

• Psychological support: 1.3500

• Deeper support: 1.3460–1.3475 (prior pivot)

• Overhead supply/first target: 1.3655–1.3670 (prior congestion)

Trade Idea (Breakout Strategy)

• Entry: Buy stop at 1.35744 (above the range top to catch momentum)

• Stop loss: 1.35364 (below range base/invalidates bullish thesis)

• Take profit: 1.36636 (into next supply band)

• Approximate risk–reward: ~1:2.3 (about 38 pips risk for ~89 pips potential)

Why This Setup Works

• Structure: Flat‑top consolidation with higher lows = pressure building under resistance.

• Liquidity: A push through 1.3575 likely runs stops and invites breakout flows toward 1.3655+.

• Validation: SL sits below the last defended demand; a break beneath 1.3530 signals the range failed.

Confirmation Checklist

• H1 close above 1.3575–1.3580 or a swift impulsive break with rising momentum.

• Best timing historically: London open and London–New York overlap.

• Data risk: Avoid initiating directly into tier‑1 releases to limit slippage/fakeouts.

Trade Management

• If triggered and price holds 1.3575–1.3580 on a retest, consider:

  • Moving SL to breakeven once price sustains above 1.3590–1.3600.

  • Partial profit at 1.3625–1.3640 (intermediate reaction area), let the remainder run to 1.3663.

• If price spikes above 1.3575 and closes the hour back inside the range, watch for a bull trap; a drop back under 1.3560 can unwind toward 1.3540.

Bearish Alternative

• An H1 close below 1.3530 turns the current range into distribution.

• Downside opens to 1.3500, then 1.3460–1.3475.

• Invalidation for shorts: Reclaim and close back above ~1.3575.

Position Sizing Example

• With a 38‑pip stop, risking 1% on a 10,000 USD account (~$100 risk):

  • $100 / 38 pips ≈ $2.63 per pip ≈ 0.26 standard lots on GBPUSD (1 lot ≈ $10/pip).

  • Adjust to your account size and risk tolerance.

Macro and Flow Considerations

• USD side: Moves in US yields and the broad dollar index can cap or fuel breakouts.

• GBP side: BoE guidance and UK CPI/wages prints influence direction.

• Risk sentiment: Equities/credit tone; risk‑on generally supports GBP.

• Event risk: UK CPI/GDP/labor, US CPI/PCE/NFP/Fed speakers. Plan entries around these to reduce volatility surprises.

Bottom Line The bias is constructive while 1.3530–1.3540 holds. A clean H1 breakout above 1.3575 favors continuation into 1.3655–1.3670. The outlined setup offers attractive risk–reward if momentum confirms—manage actively on a successful retest and stay disciplined if the breakout falters.