GBPUSD Monthly Forex Forecast for August 2018
The GBPUSD technical pattern remains bearish, but since August is considered to be the slowest trading month of the year we should expect the current trading ranges to prevail. The big psychological number 1.3000 remains the line in the sand between the bulls and the bears. Only a strong weekly close below 1.3000 will open the door for the bearish trend to resume and possible see a retest of support level 1.2770. On the upside the resistance level 1.3300 should stop any rally for moving forward. The stochastic indicator is in neutral territory and it doesn’t highlight any extreme conditions in the market.
A break and a daily close above 1.3300 will indicate that we’re in the process of a larger correction, in which case we can see the resistance level 1.3670 retested again. On the fundamental side the ongoing BREXIT negotiation remains the biggest threat to the GBPUSD exchange rate. The chances of a hard BREXIT have increased considerably over the last few especially after the EU has rejected some of the key elements of the UK government BREXIT plan. A hard BREXIT will also make it harder for the BOE to raise interest rates, which is why the odds remains stacked against the British Pound.
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