GBPUSD Monthly Forex Forecast for July 2018
As we are entering into the summer trading conditions, we should see the GBPUSD more prone to range bound rather than to see trend development. In this regard the current bearish trend can slow down, but we’re still prone to have first a retest below the big psychological number 1.3000 and then a complete reversal. Only a weekly close below 1.3000 can open the door for more downside and a retest of the 1.277 swing low. On the upside the first major resistance level only comes at 1.3300 from where we can expect the bearish trend to try again to resume.
However, a daily break and close above 1.3300 can open the door for a possible retest of the big round number 1.3500 followed by 1.3670. The stochastic indicator is in neutral territory, but pointing downwards, which is the reason why we favor another false break below 1.3000. The BOE is expected to keep interest rate on hold during the July meeting as the market consensus only sees a rate hike in August. However, due to the uncertainty around BREXIT, rising rates anytime soon, can be problematic for the BOE. Recent less hawkish rhetoric coming from the BOE – “gradual and limited way” – in regard to the interest rate policy will keep the British Pound under pressure.
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