USD/CHF Daily Price Forecast – 15th May 2025

USD/CHF Daily Price Forecast – 15th May 2025

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Trade Summary:

USDCHF
Sell Stop @ 0.83664
TP @ 0.83390
SL @ 0.83970

USD/CHF Analysis

Overview

The chart provided is a 1-hour (H1) timeframe for the USD/CHF currency pair. It highlights key levels for a potential sell trade setup, including a Sell Stop, Stop Loss (SL), and Take Profit (TP). The analysis is based on price action and moving averages.

Key Levels

• Sell Stop: 0.83664

  • This is the entry point for the sell trade. The price must break below this level to trigger the trade, indicating bearish momentum.

• Stop Loss (SL): 0.83970

  • This is the level where the trade will be exited if the price moves against the position. It is placed above recent resistance to limit losses.

• Take Profit (TP): 0.83390

  • This is the target level for the trade. It is set at a lower support level, where the price is expected to find buying interest.

Technical Indicators

• Moving Averages:

  • Yellow Line: Likely a short-term moving average (e.g., 20-period). It shows the recent trend direction.

  • Red Line: Likely a longer-term moving average (e.g., 50-period or 200-period). It indicates the overall trend.

  • The price has crossed below both moving averages, signaling bearish momentum.

• Price Action:

  • The chart shows a series of lower highs and lower lows, which is a classic bearish trend pattern.

  • The recent bearish candle breaking below the moving averages suggests strong selling pressure.

• Support and Resistance:

  • Resistance: 0.83970 (Stop Loss level) acts as a key resistance zone.

  • Support: 0.83390 (Take Profit level) is a significant support zone where the price may reverse or consolidate.

Trade Setup

• Entry: The Sell Stop at 0.83664 ensures the trade is only triggered if the price continues to move downward, confirming bearish momentum.

• Risk-Reward Ratio:

  • Risk: ~30.6 pips (difference between SL and Sell Stop).

  • Reward: ~27.4 pips (difference between Sell Stop and TP).

  • The risk-reward ratio is slightly below 1:1, which may require careful consideration.

Market Sentiment

• The bearish setup suggests that the USD is weakening against the CHF. This could be due to:

  • A stronger Swiss Franc (safe-haven demand).

  • Weakness in the US Dollar due to economic data or Federal Reserve policy expectations.

Conclusion

The USD/CHF pair is showing bearish momentum on the H1 chart. The trade setup is well-defined with clear entry, stop loss, and take profit levels. However, the slightly unfavorable risk-reward ratio may require traders to monitor the trade closely or adjust levels based on market conditions. A break below 0.83664 would confirm further downside potential, targeting 0.83390.

Recommended Lot Size

Trading is all about statistics.

While we can experience winning streaks, we can also suffer from losing streaks.

As such, we should always size each trade to withstand losing streaks (if any).

It’s widely recommended that you should not risk more than 2% of your capital for each trade.

We believe it’s easier to control your lot size by limiting your lot sizing to 0.01 for every $500 in your account.

So if you have $5000, then risk no more than 0.10 lot size per trade.

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If you spot a mistake especially when it comes to the price, please use common sense and check the chart.

We wish you good luck and good profit for this trade idea.

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