The USDCAD technical pattern is quite complicated. Over the last three weeks of price activity, USDCAD has been moving in a tight range between 1.3030 support level and 1.3200 resistance levels. In the short term, the stochastic indicator is suggesting a bullish divergence that suggests a reversal but long-term trend still remains bearish. The Australian dollar and the Canadian dollar are both commodity currencies and they tend to move together so if the AUDUSD will break to the downside than more likely USDCAD will be supported.
A break above the 1.3200 resistance level will confirm our view, however, we still expect any rallies to be quickly sold off and see more range activity. The Canadian economic calendar is full with high-risk events. On Wednesday we have the BOC interest rate decision and the market consensus is for no changes in the BOC’s monetary policy as they are expected to hold rates steady. On Thursday we have the Canadian GDP figures which are expected to inch lower from 0.4% down to 0.3%. Canada’s GDP growth rate can be under pressure due to Trump’s economic policies which in turn can hurt the exchange rates.
Previous USDCAD Weekly Forex Forecast
USDCAD Weekly Forex Forecast – 27th Feb to 3rd Mar 2017 – Bullish
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