Technical Outlook: The USDCHF closed on a bullish note last month following the strong declines in January. Overall, USDCHF continues to trade flat and within the long term range of 1.0325 – 0.8747 level. Unless there is a breakout from these levels, we expect the sideways range to continue. For the moment, USDCHF is showing signs of posting a bottom which indicates a near term upside reversal in price. A breakout above the 0.9433 region where resistance is established could signal an upside target of 0.9585 with further gains likely to stretch toward 0.9757 level.
Fundamental Outlook: Most of the gains in the USDCHF for the month of February were driven be a reversal of sentiment in the U.S. dollar. This came about as the Federal Reserve and various economic indicators point to a faster pace of growth in the first quarter. This has led to increased speculation that the first rate hike might come as early as March. Fundamentals from Switzerland remain broadly the same. The month of March will see the quarterly SNB meeting. However, officials are likely to toe the line and leave the status quo unchanged. The Swiss franc has settled in a range which means that officials are likely to remain more comfortable. However, at the risk of not sounding too hawkish, we can expect to see the central bank use its old language in the forward guidance.
Previous USDCHF Monthly and Weekly Forex Forecast
USDCHF Forex Forecast for March 2018
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