Technical Outlook: The USDCHF posted a strong rally with back to back gains for nearly eight consecutive days. This pushed the currency pair to a four month high at 0.9919. However, the strong gains are likely to see a correction in the near term. With the major support level zone at 0.9716 – 0.9681 being breached, we expect that any correction will see the USDCHF falling back to this level. Establishing support here could validate the outlook for further gains in the USDCHF currency pair. In the event of a breach below this level, the USDCHF could be seen extending the declines lower, but this is unlikely.
Fundamental Outlook: The month of April did not offer much as far as the economic data from Switzerland was concerned. Most of the gains in the USDCHF came about amid a stronger than expected economic activity in the United States. The bullish momentum continued with the preliminary GDP report showing a better than forecast quarterly GDP growth rate of 2.3%. Although this was weaker than the final quarter of 2017, the gains underlined the fact that the Federal Reserve is on track for three more rate hikes this year. The month of May is relatively quiet but focus will remain on the subsequent revisions to the first quarter GDP. The surprise element will of course be the U.S. consumer price index or inflation data. An uptick here could send the USD surging higher over the month.
Previous USDCHF Monthly and Weekly Forex Forecast
USDCHF Monthly Forex Forecast for May 2018
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