Fundamentals Outlook
The markets look to a busy week ahead with some high-ticket items on the tap. The week starts off with Japan’s final GDP numbers for the third quarter. Japan’s economy slowed in the third quarter as per the previous estimates. An unchanged print could potentially dampen expectations of any policy changes from the Bank of Japan. The U.S. will see the release of key economic data including the producer price index and the consumer price index data. With recent indicators suggesting that inflation might have slowed, a weaker print could further contribute to the speculation that the Fed could slow with rate hikes next year.
Retail sales numbers are also due this week. The latest consumer spending data showed an increase which could potentially signal that retail sales could edge higher. Among the central bank meetings this week, the Swiss National Bank is due to hold its quarterly monetary policy meeting this week. No changes are expected the SNB is expected to keep policy intact. The ECB is expected to announce an end to its QE purchase program. This comes amid recent data suggesting that the Eurozone inflation was easing once again.
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Chart set up: The USDCHF currency pair has established resistance at 1.0001 and repeated tests to this level failed to see a breakout. This led to the USDCHF pushing lower as a result. Price action is now well on its way to potentially test the lower support at 0.9870.
Key support/resistance levels:
Support: 0.9870; Resistance: 1.0001
Commentary:
The USDCHF has given back most of the gains made over the past weeks. Price action is currently in a corrective phase. As a result, we could expect to see more downside in the near term. However, the immediate support at 0.9870 will be key. If this support holds, USDCHF could potentially mark a turnaround in price. In the medium term, the currency pair could very well settle within the range if there is no breakout from either of the support or resistance levels. For the week ahead, USDCHF is expected to be flat.
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Previous USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast
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