USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 10th to 14th Oct 2016

Technical Outlook: USDCHF reached the upside target above 0.9783 from last week’s analysis. With prices reversing just a few pips below the major resistance of 0.9845 – 0.9871, we can expect to see a near term pull back in USDCHF to the downside. The support level at 0.9700 – 0.9707 remains a ripe target to the downside which offers a good level to target to the long side for the resistance low of 0.9845. The bullish bias is invalidated if USDCHF falls to the downside, breaking down below the support at 0.9700. In the short term, look for a retracement back to 0.9800 – 0.9805 which will mark a retest of the ascending wedge pattern following which USDCHF can slide towards 0.9700 – 0.9707 support.

Fundamental Outlook: For USDCHF, the main driver will be the US economic data. Retail sales numbers are expected to rise 0.60% in September after declining 0.30% in August. US PPI numbers are also due over the week with forecasts calling for a modest 0.20% increase on a month over month basis. A lot of Fed members will be speaking over the week which will be the main event risk which will conclude with the Fed Chair, Janet Yellen’s speech on Friday coming into focus for traders.

USDCHF is at uptrend line. We expect a bounce for the uptrend to remain intact. But Stochastic shows contradicting direction. We feel the uptrend will hold but if it breaks through expect a bearish week. For now, we take the bullish position….

USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 10th to 14th Oct 2016 – BULLISH