Technical Outlook: USDCHF broke down sharply below the rising trend line which extended the declines down to 1.0012. Further downside could be expected if the current retracement stalls near 1.0012 where resistance could now be established. However, there is scope for USDCHF to break above 1.0012 in which case we can expect to see the retracement push USDCHF back towards 1.0100. In the near term, USDCHF could be expected to remain range bound and therefore it is ideal to sell from 1.0012 in the event of a reversal, targeting 0.9870.
Fundamental Outlook: The Swiss National Bank’s monetary policy meeting last week did not see any major changes to monetary policy or the tone of the central bank’s language. The interest rates on sight deposits were left unchanged at -0.75% with the SNB noting that the negative interest rates will be maintained for the foreseeable future.
Analysts expect the SNB to stay on hold for at least until the end of the year. The SNB also called the Swiss franc overvalued and reminded the markets that it will remain activite in the foreign exchange markets and will intervene when required. Looking ahead, data this week from Switzerland is largely flat meaning that data from the U.S. will be the main driver.
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USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 20th to 24th Mar 2017
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