USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 21st to 25th Jan 2019
The week ahead will see the Bank of Japan holding its monetary policy meeting. The central bank, which has remained on the sidelines for the most part of last year, is expected to keep rates unchanged at -0.75%. The recent rally in the Japanese yen is however expected to see some reactions from the central bank officials. Following the release of the BoJ’s monetary policy statement, Governor Kuroda is expected to hold a press conference as well.
The ECB will also be holding its meeting this week. Given the dovish outlook from the December meeting according to the minutes, the ECB meeting this week could strike a dovish tone. Economic data over the week from the Eurozone will cover the flash manufacturing and services PMI for January ahead of the ECB meeting. Data from the U.S. is relatively quiet. The monthly durable goods orders will be released on Friday with other second tier data such as flash services and manufacturing PMI reports from MARKIT coming out earlier.
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Chart set up: The USDCHF currency pair regained its strong uptrend as price action posted steady gains. Having cleared the resistance level of 0.9870, price action has managed to rally to new highs and is now likely to reach parity against the Swiss franc.
Key support/resistance levels:
Support: 0.9870; Resistance: 1.001
In the run up to parity, the USDCHF currency pair could post a correction. The recently breached resistance level at 0.9878 will most likely be the ideal target to the downside where support could be established. This is also seen from the Stochastics oscillator which is strongly overbought. As long as the support at 0.9878 is tested and is held, price action remains biased to the upside. For the week ahead, we expect the USDCHF currency pair to be slightly bearish.
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