USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 26th to 30th Nov 2018
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The economic calendar for the week ahead will continue with some GDP data out of the Eurozone. The French preliminary GDP for the third quarter will be coming out on Monday. This is followed by the German business climate. Given the weakening sentiment among businesses, the data could disappoint. Later in the week, the flash inflation estimates from France, Germany and Spain will shed light on how inflation behaved in November.
Data from the United States will see the second revised GDP estimates for the third quarter. The first estimates showed that the gross domestic product increased 3.5%. The Fed will also be releasing the meeting minutes this week on Thursday. Data from Switzerland will see the release of the quarterly GDP numbers for the third quarter. No major surprises are expected. Economic data from Japan will focus on the inflation and retail sales figures for October.
Chart set up: The USDCHF currency pair extended strong declines as price action settled near the support level of 0.9915. The currency pair has been consolidating at this level and the decline marks a breakout from the rising price channel. However, in the near term, we expect price action to remain somewhat flat with a bias to the downside.
Key support/resistance levels:
Support: 0.9951; Resistance: 1.0080
As the USDCHF bounces off the support level, there is scope for the currency pair to move in a sideways range. However, as the Stochastic oscillator is seen to be in the oversold levels, we could expect the support to give way. There is a risk that the USDCHF could lift higher and test the breakout level from the rising price channel. This is close to the resistance level of 1.0080 which could be tested once again. A break out below the 0.9951 support could however accelerate the declines down to the next support at 0.9741. For the week ahead, USDCHF is expected to be bearish.
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