USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 4th to 8th Feb 2019
The markets were kept busy last week with a host of economic reports. The Federal Reserve held its monetary policy meeting where interest rates were left unchanged. The Fed signaled that it would remain patient when hiking interest rates. Data from the Eurozone showed that inflation continued to slow significantly during the month of January according to the flash estimates. Manufacturing activity in the Eurozone remained subdued.
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The week ahead will see mostly second tier data that covers the German and French final services PMI followed by the Eurozone’s services PMI as well. Data from the U.S. is packed for the week ahead. Key data over the week includes the ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI as well as the advanced fourth quarter GDP report from the U.S. The U.S. economy is expected to slow in the fourth quarter of the year. Durable goods orders report and the delayed retail sales report will also be coming out on Wednesday. Data from Japan and Switzerland is relatively quiet for the week ahead.
Chart set up: The USDCHF currency pair has managed to trade flat after prices pushed higher above the previous resistance level of 0.9870. The newly established range of 1.0001 and 0.9870 is likely to hold the declines or gains in the near term.
Key support/resistance levels:
Support: 0.9870; Resistance: 1.001
The breakdown below the support level of 0.9870 could however push the USDCHF lower to test the support at 0.9741. However, this is unlikely to happen in the near term unless prices break the support strongly. In the near term, we expect the USDCHF to post a rebound near the support level which could keep price action supported to the upside for a short period of time. Given the fact that the upper resistance has not been tested firmly, we expect the USDCHF to test the resistance at 1.0001 level firmly before pushing lower.
For the week ahead, we expect the USDCHF currency pair to be slightly bearish.
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