USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 5th to 9th Dec 2016

Technical Outlook: USDCHF has failed to clear the 1.0128 resistance level and has been consolidating for nearly the past 9 daily sessions. This indicates and exhaustion to the uptrend and therefore, USDCHF could be poised for a break lower. Support at 0.9934 remains in focus for the moment. Price is likely to be supported here by the horizontal support level and the trend line which could therefore be a strong level to break. Look for a reversal pattern near 0.9934 – 0.9883 region to go long into the medium term uptrend. Note that there are speculations about the SNB intervening in the currency markets, which validates the view to “buy the dips” especially from the support region of 0.9934 – 0.9883.

Fundamental Outlook: Switzerland’s inflation and unemployment rate data will be coming up this week. Inflation is expected to fall 0.1% in November, neutralizing the 0.1% gains in consumer price index previously. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.3%. Still, the Swiss franc could see some near term gains on a flight to safety on this week’s events in Europe. From the US, only the ISM non-manufacturing index will be of importance, which is expected to rise to 55.3, extending the gains from 54.8. Thursday’s ECB meeting will also be a factor to consider for the Swiss franc later in the week.

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USDCHF Weekly Forex Forecast – 5th to 9th Dec 2016 – BEARISH