Technical Outlook: USDCHF’s consolidation from the rising wedge pattern was met with strong support reversal close to 1.0087. Price action is likely to see further bullish momentum push back closer to the price level of 1.0227 which could see some consolidation in the near term. The overall bias in USDCHF remains to the downside meaning that as long as price action does not close above 1.0307, the U.S. dollar is looking weaker towards 0.9934. Any short term gains towards 1.0227 could be seen as selling opportunities with the target of 0.9334.
Fundamental Outlook: Swiss retail sales and unemployment rate data will be the only two key events from Switzerland this week. Retail sales is forecast to rise 0.4% on a year over year basis in November, which comes after a 0.5% decline the month before and down 0.9% in nominal terms in October. Compared with the previous month, real, seasonally adjusted retail trade turnover registered an increase of 1.2%. On the employment front, the Swiss unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 3.3%. The driver in USDCHF is of course going to be the U.S. dollar which will see economic reports including retail sales and PPI figures coming out this week, alongside various FOMC member speeches including that of Fed Chair, Janet Yellen.
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