Fundamentals Outlook
The markets look to a busy week ahead with some high-ticket items on the tap. The week starts off with Japan’s final GDP numbers for the third quarter. Japan’s economy slowed in the third quarter as per the previous estimates. An unchanged print could potentially dampen expectations of any policy changes from the Bank of Japan. The U.S. will see the release of key economic data including the producer price index and the consumer price index data. With recent indicators suggesting that inflation might have slowed, a weaker print could further contribute to the speculation that the Fed could slow with rate hikes next year.
Retail sales numbers are also due this week. The latest consumer spending data showed an increase which could potentially signal that retail sales could edge higher. Among the central bank meetings this week, the Swiss National Bank is due to hold its quarterly monetary policy meeting this week. No changes are expected the SNB is expected to keep policy intact. The ECB is expected to announce an end to its QE purchase program. This comes amid recent data suggesting that the Eurozone inflation was easing once again.
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Chart set up: The USDJPY currency pair failed to breakout above the resistance level of 113.58 level after testing this price for a while. The dollar fell sharply pushing the USDJPY down to the lower support at 112.74. Price action briefly slipped below this level only to recover slightly.
Key support/resistance levels:
Support: 111.78; Resistance: 112.74
Commentary:
The decline in the USDJPY last week potentially indicates further losses could be in store. With price action settling near the resistance level of 112.74, failure to breakout higher could signal further declines. The lower support at 111.78 remains the prime target for the moment. Alternately, a breakout above 112.74 could put the USDJPY back to trading within the higher range. For the week ahead, the USDJPY currency pair is expected to be bearish.
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Previous USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast
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