Technical Outlook: The USDJPY currency pair initially consolidated near the 109.14 level before attempting to post some gains. However, this led prices to retest the previous highs near 109.86 and thus marking a double top pattern. The 4-hour Stochastic is currently in the oversold level and we could expect a modest retracement to the upside. However, as long as the highs of 109.86 is not breached, we expect USDJPY to break down below 109.14. In this case, the double top pattern could be confirmed with prices likely to fall to the next main support seen at 107.78 – 107.64.
Fundamental Outlook: Data from Japan for the week ahead is relatively quiet. The preliminary GDP report for the first quarter will be the main data point this week. The Japanese economy has been advancing at a steady pace over the past few quarters. This is expected to continue with the first quarter GDP expected to show an advancement as well. However, the pace of increase is expected to slow especially with the Japanese yen that surged higher during the same period. The higher exchange rate is expected to impact the export businesses which in turn could see a weaker pace of GDP growth.
USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 14th to 18th May 2018
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