USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast – 7th to 11th Jan 2019
The week ahead will see the second tier data coming out of Europe. German factory orders and retail sales sets the pace for the week ahead followed by the Eurozone’s Sentix investor confidence report. Later in the week, the German industrial production figures will be coming out culminating with the trade balance figures. The European Central bank will be releasing its monetary policy meeting minutes this week. The minutes cover the central bank’s meeting held in December where the governing council decided to end the QE purchases.
Data from the United States will see the release of the ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI report. The data comes on the back of manufacturing activity posting a decline to hit a two year low in December. The Fed will be releasing its monetary policy meeting minutes this week. The minutes cover the December meeting where the FOMC hiked interest rates by a quarter basis point. Later in the week, the inflation report from the U.S. will cover the latest consumer prices for the month of December. Data from Japan and Switzerland are relatively quiet this week.
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Chart set up: The USDJPY currency pair was bearish last week as price action was seen extending declines strongly. The declines came mostly due to the prevailing market sentiment. With weak sentiment, the risk averse mode pushed the yen higher as a result.
Key support/resistance levels:
Support: 106.93; Resistance: 110.26
The decline to the newly formed support at 106.93, saw the USDJPY currency posting a quick rebound. Of course, this came after the USDJPY fell sharply to intraday lows of 105.01 before pulling back higher. The rebound off 106.93 has sent the USDJPY briefly higher. But we expect this gain to be short-lived. In the near term, the currency pair is quite likely to retest the support at 106.93. As long as this support holds, the currency pair could be seen trading flat. To the upside, the USDJPY will need to break past the falling trend line, followed by the test of resistance at 110.26. The USDJPY could be seen trading flat.
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