The EURUSD posted strong declines last week as the U.S. dollar strengthened on the back of broadly positive economic data. The fact that this week's FOMC meeting will see the Fed hiking interest rates also helped to fueled the U.S. dollar's strength. EURUSD closed at 1.1765 on Friday and we expect some near term declines to send the currency pair to retest the immediate support level seen at 1.1721. There is however the risk of a move back to the upside. Resistance at 1.1850 remains key. As long as the euro does not break this resistance level we can expect to see further declines that could send the euro down to 1.1662 level of support.
The markets open to a new week with the ECB's monetary policy dominating the headlines. The monetary policy meeting, which is scheduled for Thursday will see no major changes to interest rates or to the central bank's QE program. This comes after October's changes to the QE purchases. The European Central bank is expected to give its assessment on the Eurozone economy. The recent inflation data showed some weakness in the core inflation rate which is likely to be addressed. There is scope that the ECB's message could be dovish this week which could push the euro lower. Elsewhere, on the economic front, the final inflation figures from Germany and France alongside the industrial production data will be released.
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