EURUSD has been broadly flat last week and as mentioned, price was trading within the 1.0585 - 1.0518 price zone. By Friday, EURUSD managed to close above this level. The risks to the upside increases into a new week but Friday's doji close is something to consider as price could quickly gap lower. To the downside, 1.0518 - 1.0500 is the important
from which we can expect a bounce to the upside. From the current levels, if EURUSD gaps higher, we can expect a move to 1.0850 where an unfilled gap remains from 11/11. Above 1.0850, further upside could see EURUSD test 1.0900 with the potential to rise to as much as 1.1000 region. Overall, the current rallies in EURUSD will be a sell into the long term downtrend.
Amid a lot of economic data from the Eurozone, the ECB's meeting this Thursday will be of main importance for the markets. No changes are expected at this meeting and the ECB is likely to signal a continuation of its QE program with the potential for changing the size of the QE purchase program. Ahead of the ECB, Sunday's Italian referendum outcome will also be weighing on the single currency. Among other data, the revised quarterly GDP for the eurozone will also be coming out alongside data from Germany which includes factory orders and industrial production.
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