The GBPUSD price action is trapped in what seems to be a consolidating market. As long as we can’t post a weekly close above the big psychological number 1.2500 we should expect further ranging activity. The first level of support comes in at 1.2350 from where we can see a bounce. On the upside, we only have as significant resistance level the 1.2500 figure, while a break above will expose the March high 1.2615. The stochastic indicator is already in oversold territory and a bounce is due sooner rather than later. The worse than expected NFP figures have failed to inspire dollar weakness, but coming week we can see a different story.
The UK economic calendar will bring some notable risk events. Tuesday we have the CPI inflation figures and based on the market consensus we should see a jump in the inflation expectation figures due to the lower pound exchange rate. While on Wednesday we have the UK Employment figures which we need to keep a close eye on. As a proxy risk event we have Janet Yellen speech on Monday which is due to speak at the University of Michigan. Audience questions expected.
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