Last two weeks GBPUSD rally has finally reached a climax point from where we can see a pullback. The rejection off of the big psychological number 1.2500 and the unwillingness to post a weekly close above it warns that the cycle from 1.2100 low has finished. There is a possibility for the GBPUSD to retest last week opening price 1.2387 before another upward cycle to be seen. The stochastic indicator is coming down from overbought territory, so we have a build up in downside momentum behind this move. We also have to keep in mind that an early break and a daily close above the big psychological number can signal that retracements continue to be shallow and the cycle from 1.2100 low is still intact. This will put the focus on the 1.2700 swing high which can act as resistance. The Article 50 will be triggered on Wednesday, March 29. The UK will inform the EU that they will start the procedures to leave the 28 nation bloc. This is a major risk event that can disrupt the GBPUSD volatility, but we don’t know yet how much of this is already priced in. The UK economic calendar looks mild as the only notable risk event is the UK Trade Balance figures scheduled on Friday. Other than that we have few Fed’s member speeches and the US Final GDP figures for the last quarter of 2016 which are expected to come flat at 2%. Previous GBPUSD Weekly Forex Forecast

GBPUSD Weekly Forex Forecast - 27th to 31st March 2017