The USDCAD continues to trade inside a very frustrating and a trading range that gets more narrowed by the day. This contraction in price suggests that sooner rather than later we should see trend expansion, but we need to wait for confirmation and a clear breakout to assert the direction of the break. The weekly close below the big psychological number 1.3000 is a sign of strong bearish momentum, but what we really need is a break below support level 1.2815 but more importantly below 1.2745 to confirm the bearish trend.
Otherwise, as long as we trade inside these price levels we should expect more consolidation. On the upside only a daily break and close above 1.3000 can open the door for a retest of the current yearly high 1.3124. There is no major risk events scheduled on the Canadian economic calendar, but we have some risks coming from the other side of the monetary policy spectrum. The US Federal Reserve is scheduled on Wednesday to hike rates to 2.00% from 1.75%. The interest rate decision is followed by the FOMC press conference.
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