The USDCAD continues to trade below the big psychological number 1.3000 and the weekly close below suggest that the bears can have another shoot next week. However, we can’t rule out a short lived rally above the 1.3000 before the bears show up. On the downside, the first level of intraday support comes at 1.2920, while a break and a daily close below 1.2920 will open the door for a retest of the next important support level 1.2815.
The stochastic indicator is already in oversold territory which confirms the bearish case. However, a strong daily close above 1.3000 can lead to more strength. The Canadian economic calendar is stocked with some risk events that have the potential to disrupt the volatility. Wednesday will bring the BOC interest rate decision which can provide further clarity to the USD/CAD trend. According to the market consensus the interest rate will be left unchanged at 1.25%. Thursday the Canadian GDP figures for the first quarter of 2018 will be released.
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