The USD/CAD technical pattern is indecisive as neither the bulls nor the bears have the control while we’re trading inside this very wide range between 1.3200 major resistance and 1.2630 swing low. The big psychological number 1.3000 is the critical level within the range and can act as both support and resistance at the same time.
Since we only posted a marginal weekly close below the 1.3000 big round number there is scope in the week ahead for the USD/CAD to attempt to retest last week high at 1.3130, but it should quickly fade for another attempt to break below 1.3000 and possible reach 1.2900 next level of support.
BOC interest rate decision should be the focal point for the Canadian Dollar in the week ahead. Canada’s economic growth shrank by 1.6% in the second quarter of 2016 but that’s mainly due to Oil prices and with the inflation expectation almost close to the 2% BOC’s inflation target there is little scope for any rate cuts, especially ahead of the September Fed rate decision. If BOC takes a very dovish stance look for the rally to extend above last week high 1.3148.
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