The EURUSD is in the process of establishing an important intermediate swing low. The US Federal reserve has raised interest rates a quarter point as per market expectation, but the greenback didn’t strengthen as one would expect. This can be a possible warning sign of what might lay ahead of us. On the other side of the monetary policy spectrum, the ECB has kept monetary policy unchanged. The EU system has some structural issues and the next French Presidential election scheduled on 23 April are going to be a big challenge and can possibly be the catalyst for Frexit. April is set to be an interesting month with major risk events that can disrupt the EURUSD volatility. Cycle wise the US dollar has a strong tendency to weaken during this time of the year and the price action is already pointing in that direction. The EURUSD is also trading above the yearly opening price which is constructive for the bullish case. Going forward, we’re going to analyze and disseminate the major news event for the upcoming month that can be the catalyst for higher EURUSD volatility.

“Don’t risk significant money in front of key reports, since that is gambling not trading.” - Paul Tudor Jones

April 2017 EURUSD Risk Events

April will bring several risk events that can be the catalyst for the EURUSD to exhibit some big swings. If the fundamentals align with the current technicals the EURUSD can be in the process of reversal. However, we need the fundamental to shift and current monetary policy stances to reinforce the higher EURUSD exchange rates.

• Wednesday, April 5, 2017 – First major risk event of the month is the FOMC Meeting Minutes which will give us further insights into the Fed’s monetary policy decision and the most recent rate hike. It’s very unlikely the Fed will signal the same desire to hike rates at the next meeting despite the Fed showing confidence in the US economic growth.
• Friday, April 7, 2017 – The Non-Farm Payrolls Report is one of the most awaited figures especially for Forex traders. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.8% down to 4.78%, and the US added more jobs than expected during the second month of the year. The confidence in the US economy is at all time high and Trump’s economic policies to bring back jobs are encouraging for the labor market.
• Friday, April 14, 2017 – The US CPI inflation figures are at the highest level in 5 years and they are in line with the Fed’s goal. The US economy looks in good shape and this might give investors’ confidence in Fed ability to follow up with more rate hikes this year.
• Friday, April 14, 2017 – Is a Holiday in most part of the EU so we should expect lower liquidity and less volatility.
• Monday, April 17, 2017 – Is Easter holiday and the EU markets are going to be closed, so the trading activity will be subdued.
• Friday, April 21, 2017 – The IMF meeting, which is held twice a year, can produce some headlines that can be the catalysts for some volatility. The Meetings bring together central bankers and ministers of finance from developing economies. The Greek debt crisis will be among the topics to be discussed.
• Saturday, April 22, 2017 – The Vienna OPEC meeting, which bring together representatives from 13 oil-rich nations will be held in Vienna.
• Sunday, April 23, 2017 – The French general election is set to be the biggest risk event of the month not just for the EURUSD exchange rate but for the whole capital markets. Even though the latest poll shows a defeat of Le Pen in the second round of the French presidential election, there is still a lot of uncertainty among French voters. Investors seem unwinding their safe haven bets which signals that the market is positioned for Emmanuel Macron win.
• Thursday, April 27, 2017 – The ECB interest rate decision followed by the ECB press conference will be the main risk event of the day. The ECB has extended its QE programme until December 2017 and key interest rates are still in negative territory. But there are growing speculations that the ECB can signal its first attempt towards monetary tightening which could boost the EURUSD exchange rate. This can be a major shift in interest rate speculation that can produce extreme unwinding euro bearish bets.
• Friday, April 28, 2017 – The US Advance GDP figures will show us how the US economy has performed during the first months of 2017 and during the first months of Trump presidency. The US economy finished the year with an annualized rate of 1.9% in the 4^th quarter and the general consensus is for the US economy under current White house administration to grow between 2% and 2.5%.