Technical Outlook: USDJPY continued to consolidate near 104.27 - 104.00 resistance level for most of last week. Despite the intra-week dip to 103.20, price quickly reversed back with Friday seen trading back near 104.00 resistance. However, following the reversal pattern near 104.00, price is now likely to move lower. The head and shoulders pattern which has been re-adjusted shows the price action breaking the neckline support and retesting the same on Friday. The coming week, USDJPY could be seen pushing lower with 102.56 - 102.46 coming in as the main support in sight. A break below this support will see the declines extend to 101.70 - 101.45 support. The bearish bias will be invalidated if USDJPY retraces above 104.00. Only a daily close above 104.27 will invalidate the bearish outlook. Fundamental Outlook: The week ahead will see the flash manufacturing PMI coming out on Monday with expectations pointing to a soft improvement from 50.4 to 50.6 in October. While the economic calendar for the yen is quiet, Friday's inflation figures will be an important event. Forecasts are for a negative 0.5 percent fall in inflation while the BoJ's core inflation is expected to rise at a slower pace of only 0.3%.

USDJPY Weekly Forex Forecast - 24th to 28th Oct 2016 - NEUTRAL