AUD/NZD Daily Price Forecast – 22nd May 2025

AUD/NZD Technical Analysis

Timeframe: H4 (4-Hour Chart)

The chart provided shows the AUD/NZD currency pair on the H4 timeframe. Below is a detailed analysis based on the chart:

Key Observations

• Moving Averages:

  • Yellow Line (50 SMA): The 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) is sloping upward, indicating a short-term bullish trend.

  • Red Line (200 SMA): The 200-period SMA is also sloping upward, confirming a longer-term bullish bias.

  • The price is trading above both the 50 SMA and 200 SMA, which is a strong bullish signal.

• Buy Stop Entry:

  • A Buy Stop is placed at 1.08929, slightly above the current price level. This suggests that the trader is waiting for confirmation of bullish momentum before entering the trade.

• Stop Loss (SL):

  • The Stop Loss is set at 1.08437, below the recent swing low. This level provides a safety net in case the price reverses and invalidates the bullish setup.

• Take Profit (TP):

  • The Take Profit is set at 1.09220, which is near a recent resistance level. This level is a logical target for the trade, as it aligns with previous price action.

• Price Action:

  • The price has recently bounced off the 200 SMA, indicating strong support at this level.

  • The bullish candlesticks suggest that buyers are gaining control, and the price is attempting to break above the recent consolidation zone.

• Trend Analysis:

  • The overall trend is bullish, as indicated by the moving averages and the higher highs and higher lows on the chart.

Trade Setup

• Entry: Buy Stop at 1.08929.

• Stop Loss: 1.08437 (below recent support).

• Take Profit: 1.09220 (near resistance).

Risk-to-Reward Ratio

• The distance between the entry and stop loss is approximately 49 pips.

• The distance between the entry and take profit is approximately 29 pips.

• The risk-to-reward ratio is slightly less than 1:1, which is not ideal. However, the trade setup relies on the strong bullish momentum to achieve the target.

Key Levels

• Support: 1.08437 (Stop Loss level and recent swing low).

• Resistance: 1.09220 (Take Profit level and recent high).

Conclusion

The AUD/NZD pair is showing bullish momentum, supported by the moving averages and price action. The trade setup is well-structured, with a Buy Stop entry above the current price to confirm bullish continuation. However, the risk-to-reward ratio could be improved by adjusting the Take Profit level or Stop Loss placement.