AUD/USD Daily Price Forecast – 3rd September 2025

Latest EUR/AUD Technical Analysis

AUD/USD H4 Breakout Setup: Long Above 0.6525 Toward 0.6556

Thesis

• Bias: Moderately bullish over the next 1–3 sessions.

• Rationale: A failed push below the 0.6500 round number followed by a swift reclaim of the breakdown zone shifts near‑term control to buyers. A clean break through 0.6524–0.6526 is expected to unlock upside into the next H4 supply at 0.6555–0.6557.

Key Levels

• 0.6500–0.6503: Demand shelf and structural invalidation for longs.

• 0.6524–0.6526: Range lid/breakout trigger with stacked liquidity from multiple prior rejections.

• 0.6555–0.6557: First trouble area/supply from the last failed rally; initial target.

Trade Plan (as shown on the chart)

• Entry: Buy stop 0.65249

• Stop loss: 0.65026 (beneath round‑number support and reclaimed structure)

• Take profit 1: 0.65565 (set slightly inside supply for higher fill probability)

• Initial R:R: Approximately 1.4:1 (≈22 pips risk, ≈31 pips reward to TP1)

• Extension potential: 0.6585–0.6600 if momentum persists after 0.6556

Technical Justification

• Structure: Post‑selloff V‑reversal created higher lows on H4; sub‑0.6500 rejection confirms demand.

• Momentum: A wide bullish H4 impulse reclaimed the breakdown area in one move—often a precursor to continuation once the range lid breaks.

• Order flow logic: Above 0.6525, resting stops/offers are likely to fuel a quick drive into 0.6555+.

Execution and Management

• Confirmation preference: H1 or H4 close above 0.6525 reduces wick‑through risk before continuation.

• Scaling: Consider securing 50–70% at 0.6556; trail the remainder beneath successive H1 swing lows or via a 20–30 pip chandelier/trailing stop.

• Failed break protocol: If a trigger occurs but price closes back inside 0.6515–0.6520, tighten risk or reduce exposure; failed breaks commonly revert toward 0.6500.

Invalidation and Alternatives

• Bullish view invalidated on a decisive H4 close below 0.6500, opening 0.6470 and 0.6450 demand zones.

• Chop risk: Extended oscillation between 0.6505 and 0.6525 without expansion suggests waiting for a firm H4 body close above 0.6530 before re‑arming the breakout plan.

Macro Snapshot

• USD: Dollar direction remains sensitive to US yields and data surprises; softer growth/inflation impulses typically cap DXY and aid risk‑sensitive FX.

• AUD: As a pro‑cyclical currency, AUD benefits from steady risk appetite and firm commodities; with the RBA vigilant on inflation, the rate‑differential headwind versus the Fed is less punitive than earlier in the year.