AUD/USD Daily Price Forecast – 4th March 2025

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Trade Summary:

AUDUSD
Sell Stop @ 0.61924
TP @ 0.61578
SL @ 0.622256

Technical Analysis for AUD/USD (H4 Chart)

Overview

The AUD/USD pair is currently in a bearish trend, as indicated by the price action and the technical indicators on the H4 chart. The chart shows a clear downward momentum, with the price trading below key moving averages and approaching significant support levels. Below is a detailed breakdown of the technical analysis:

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1. Trend Analysis

• Bearish Trend: The price is in a sustained downtrend, as evidenced by the lower highs and lower lows on the chart.

• Moving Averages:

  • The 200-period moving average (dark green line) is sloping downward, confirming the long-term bearish trend.

  • The 50-period moving average (blue line) is also trending downward and is positioned below the 200-period moving average, indicating a bearish crossover.

  • The 20-period moving average (light green line) is closely following the price, acting as dynamic resistance.

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2. Key Levels

• Resistance Levels:

  • 0.62256: This level is marked as the stop-loss (SL) for the sell trade. It represents a key resistance level where sellers are expected to defend.

  • 0.62000 - 0.62100: A psychological resistance zone near the round number, where price has previously struggled to break higher.

• Support Levels:

  • 0.61924: This is the sell-stop level, indicating a potential breakout point for further downside momentum.

  • 0.61578: This is the take-profit (TP) level, representing a significant support zone where buyers may step in.

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3. Momentum Indicators

• Momentum Power: The momentum indicator shows a negative value (-0.00052050), confirming bearish momentum in the market.

• Candlestick Confirmation: The chart indicates that momentum is aligning with candlestick patterns, suggesting further downside potential.

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4. Trade Setup

• Sell Trade:

  • Entry: Sell-stop at 0.61924.

  • Stop-Loss (SL): Placed at 0.62256, just above the recent resistance level.

  • Take-Profit (TP): Targeting 0.61578, a key support level.

• Risk-Reward Ratio: The trade setup offers a favorable risk-reward ratio, as the distance to the TP is greater than the distance to the SL.

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5. Price Action

• The price is consolidating near the 0.62000 level, which is a critical round number. A break below this level (triggering the sell-stop) could lead to further bearish continuation.

• Recent candlesticks show rejection at higher levels, indicating strong selling pressure.

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6. Conclusion

The AUD/USD pair is poised for further downside, with bearish momentum and technical indicators aligning for a sell trade. Traders should monitor the 0.61924 level for a breakout and manage risk with the stop-loss at 0.62256. The take-profit target at 0.61578 aligns with the next significant support level, making it a logical exit point.

Trading is all about statistics.

While we can experience winning streaks, we can also suffer from losing streaks.

As such, we should always size each trade to withstand losing streaks (if any).

It's widely recommended that you should not risk more than 2% of your capital for each trade.

We believe it's easier to control your lot size by limiting your lot sizing to 0.01 for every $500 in your account.

So if you have $5000, then risk no more than 0.10 lot size per trade.

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If you spot a mistake especially when it comes to the price, please use common sense and check the chart.

We wish you good luck and good profit for this trade idea.

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