CAD/CHF has gone through a full cycle — strong rally, distribution at the top, then a clean selloff. The bearish leg has already played out, and now price is attempting a recovery from the lows.
This is no longer a strong trending market. What we’re seeing now is a corrective bounce, and the question is whether this recovery has enough strength to continue.
Technical Analysis
Trend Bias
Overall: Bearish to neutral
Short-term: Bullish correction in progress
The moving averages have rolled over earlier, confirming the downtrend. However, price has started to base and push higher from the lows, suggesting sellers are losing momentum for now.
Key Levels
Buy Stop: 0.57778
Take Profit: 0.58045
Stop Loss: 0.57534
These levels are clean and logical. No need to complicate.
What Price Action Is Showing Me
The strong selloff has slowed down. That alone tells me momentum has shifted.
We are seeing higher lows forming from the recent bottom.
Price is trying to reclaim the short-term moving average — a common sign of a corrective move.
A break above 0.57778 would confirm that buyers are in control short-term and open the path toward 0.58045.
This is not a trend reversal yet — just a pullback trade within a broader bearish structure.
Risk and Trade Logic
Entry: 0.57778
Target: 0.58045
Stop: 0.57534
Risk is well-defined. If price drops back below 0.57534, the recovery idea is invalid and the downtrend resumes.
My Outlook for 12th December 2025
Bias
Level
Notes
Bullish break
0.57778
Confirms corrective continuation
Target zone
0.58045
Prior resistance
Invalidation
0.57534
Below here, sellers regain control
If price breaks higher, the move should be smooth. If it stalls or fails, I step aside — no reason to force trades in correction phases.
Fundamental Angle
CAD is supported by stable oil prices.
CHF remains firm as a defensive currency, but strength is not accelerating.
This supports a short-term rebound rather than a full reversal.
Conclusion
CAD/CHF is attempting a bounce after a completed bearish leg. The structure supports a short-term recovery, but this is still a corrective move, not a trend change.
A clean break above 0.57778 favors a push toward 0.58045. Failure below 0.57534 puts sellers back in control.
Trade it for what it is — a measured recovery, nothing more.
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