CAD/JPY Daily Price Forecast – 10th July 2025

Chart Overview

• Timeframe: H4 (4-hour)

• Indicators: Two moving averages (likely 50 EMA in yellow and 200 EMA in red)

• Key Levels:

  • Buy Stop: 107.015

  • Take Profit (TP): 107.377

  • Stop Loss (SL): 106.548

Trend Analysis

• Current Trend: The price is above both the yellow and red moving averages, indicating a bullish trend.

• Moving Averages: The yellow (shorter period) MA is above the red (longer period) MA, confirming bullish momentum.

• Recent Price Action: After a recent pullback, the price is consolidating above the yellow MA, suggesting potential for a continuation to the upside.

Key Levels & Trade Setup

• Buy Stop @ 107.015:

  • This is a breakout entry above recent resistance, aiming to catch upward momentum if the price breaks higher.

• Take Profit @ 107.377:

  • This level is set just below a previous swing high, a logical target for a bullish breakout.

• Stop Loss @ 106.548:

  • Placed below recent support and the yellow MA, providing a buffer against false breakouts.

Risk/Reward Analysis

• Entry: 107.015

• TP: 107.377 (Potential gain: 36.2 pips)

• SL: 106.548 (Potential loss: 46.7 pips)

• Risk/Reward Ratio: ~0.77

  • The risk/reward is slightly less than 1:1, which is not ideal. Consider adjusting the TP higher or SL tighter if price action allows.

Technical Observations

• Support & Resistance:

  • The 106.548 level has acted as support in recent sessions.

  • 107.015 is a resistance level; a break above could trigger further buying.

  • 107.377 is a resistance from a previous swing high.

• Moving Averages:

  • The price is using the yellow MA as dynamic support.

  • The red MA (longer period) is trending upward, supporting the bullish bias.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish Breakout:

  • If price breaks above 107.015, expect momentum to carry it toward 107.377.

  • Watch for strong bullish candles and volume on the breakout.

• False Breakout:

  • If price fails to hold above 107.015 and reverses, the SL at 106.548 will limit losses.

  • Watch for bearish rejection candles near 107.015.

• Consolidation:

  • If price remains between 106.548 and 107.015, wait for a clear breakout before entering.

Summary

• Bias: Bullish, with a breakout strategy above 107.015.

• Confirmation: Wait for a strong H4 close above 107.015 for added confirmation.

• Risk Management: The setup is reasonable, but the risk/reward could be improved. Consider monitoring price action closely for potential adjustments.