EUR/USD Daily Price Forecast – 17th September 2025

EURUSD Breakout Watch: 1.1877 Buy Stop, 1.1925 TP, 1.1847 SL

• Bias: Mildly bullish into the Fed, with risks of two-way volatility around policy guidance.

• Drivers: A softer USD on imminent Fed easing vs. a steadier ECB that has paused at 2.15% but continues to stress inflation vigilance.

• Levels: The 1.1870–1.1900 zone is the near-term pivot; sustained acceptance above 1.1925 would open 1.2000/1.2050. Supports sit at 1.1845, 1.1820 and 1.1780.

Macro backdrop (what’s moving EURUSD now)

• ECB: On 11 Sept 2025, the ECB kept rates unchanged, signaling a steadier stance after its mid-year easing cycle while highlighting lingering inflation risks. Staff projections (Sept 2025) see euro area inflation averaging roughly 2.1% in 2025 and moderating further in 2026, with growth subdued near term before gradually improving. Sources: ECB monetary policy decision (11 Sep 2025) and ECB September 2025 projections.

• Fed: Markets expect the Fed to resume rate cuts at the 17 Sept 2025 meeting amid a cooling US labor market and inflation trending lower, which has weighed on the USD into the decision. A cut is widely priced; guidance about the pace of further easing will be the swing factor. Sources: Fed calendar; market coverage and rate expectations snapshots.

• Spot context: EURUSD has pushed into the high-1.18s recently, with euro support coming from improving sentiment data and the prospect of US–EU rate convergence. As of 16–17 Sept, the ECB’s reference rate showed EUR 1 ≈ USD 1.18; market feeds had spot hovering around 1.185–1.186. Sources: ECB FX reference rate; market dashboards.

Technical view Higher time frames (daily/weekly)

• Structure: EURUSD is pressing a multi-month resistance band at 1.1900–1.1950. A weekly close above 1.1950 would validate a larger trend continuation toward the psychological 1.2000 handle, then 1.2050/1.2100.

• Supports: 1.1820/1.1780 is a notable prior supply-turned-demand zone; a daily close below would cool the uptrend and re-open 1.1700.

Intraday (your H1 chart)

• Momentum: Strong impulsive leg up followed by a shallow, orderly consolidation—a classic bull-flag behavior near resistance.

• Your plan on the chart: Buy Stop 1.18770; SL 1.18472; TP 1.19250.

  • Risk: 1.18770 – 1.18472 = 0.00298 (≈29.8 pips)

  • Reward: 1.19250 – 1.18770 = 0.00480 (≈48 pips)

  • R:R ≈ 1:1.6

• Rationale: The buy stop sits just above the local consolidation ceiling. A trigger would confirm continuation, aiming for a measured move into the 1.1920–1.1930 shelf and just below the bigger daily resistance at 1.1950.

• Invalidations and alternatives:

  • A clean H1 close below 1.1845 negates the immediate bull structure and invites a test of 1.1820; deeper failure targets 1.1780.

  • If price spikes on the Fed and immediately rejects 1.1925/1.1950 (long upper wicks, rising volume), expect a range fade back into 1.1860–1.1840.

Event risk and scenarios

• Today: FOMC rate decision and guidance.

  • Bullish EURUSD: Cut plus dovish forward guidance or downside surprises in US activity/inflation. Break/hold above 1.1925 targets 1.1950, then the round 1.2000; extensions 1.2050.

  • Range-to-slightly-bearish: Cut but cautious messaging and/or dots implying a slower easing path. Whipsaw risk, with mean reversion toward 1.1840–1.1820.

  • Bearish shock: No cut or hawkish surprise; strong US data beats. Loss of 1.1820 exposes 1.1780 and 1.1700.

Trade plan ideas (aligning with your chart)

• Momentum continuation (preferred): Buy stop 1.18770, SL 1.18472, TP 1.19250. R:R ≈ 1:1.6. Consider scaling 50% at 1.1915/20 and trailing remainder in case 1.1950 gives way post-Fed.

• Break-and-retest: If 1.1925 breaks on news, wait for a retest/hold above 1.1900–1.1910 to reduce headline slippage; target 1.1980/1.2000; protective stop back inside 1.1885.

• Fade setup (only if invalidated): On a decisive H1 close below 1.1845, rallies into 1.1860/70 may be sold with stops over 1.1900, targeting 1.1820 then 1.1780.

Risk management checklist

• Cut position size for event volatility; spreads and slippage can expand materially around the Fed.

• Use alerts at 1.1845, 1.1877, 1.1925, and 1.1950 to avoid overtrading the noise.

• If using resting buy stops into the announcement, consider wider “disaster stops” or switch to manual execution post-statement to control slippage.

• Keep R:R ≥ 1:1.5 on new entries; avoid chasing after large, thin candles unless you have a clear retest.

What to watch next

• Fed statement, dot plot (pace of additional cuts), and press conference tone.

• Euro area PMIs and inflation prints over the next two weeks for confirmation that inflation stays around target while growth stabilizes.

• US data follow-through (jobless claims, PCE, ISM) to see whether USD softness persists.

Sources (for your blog footer)

• ECB: Monetary policy decision, 11 Sep 2025; ECB Staff Projections, Sep 2025; ECB euro reference exchange rate (USD).

• Federal Reserve: FOMC calendar and policy materials; market-implied probabilities via public dashboards.

• Market context and aggregates: Trading Economics EURUSD page and related indicators.