EUR/USD Daily Price Forecast – 21st March 2025

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Trade Summary:

EUR/USD
Sell Stop @ 1.08164
TP @ 1.07621
SL @ 1.08750

EUR/USD Analysis (H4 Chart)

Overview

The EUR/USD chart provided is a 4-hour (H4) timeframe, showing a bearish setup with key levels marked for a potential sell trade. The chart includes moving averages and horizontal support/resistance levels, which are critical for technical analysis.

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Key Levels

• Sell Stop: 1.08164

  • This is the entry point for the sell trade. The price is expected to break below this level, confirming bearish momentum.

• Stop Loss (SL): 1.08750

  • This level is set above recent resistance, providing a safety net in case the trade moves against the bearish bias.

• Take Profit (TP): 1.07621

  • The target level for the trade, located near a previous support zone.

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Technical Indicators

• Moving Averages:

  • Yellow Line (Short-Term MA): Indicates short-term price trends. The price has crossed below this line, signaling bearish momentum.

  • Red Line (Long-Term MA): Represents the longer-term trend. The price is approaching this line, which could act as dynamic support.

• Candlestick Patterns:

  • Recent candlesticks show bearish pressure, with lower highs and lower lows forming, indicating a potential continuation of the downtrend.

• Support and Resistance:

  • The chart shows clear horizontal levels of support and resistance. The sell stop level (1.08164) is just below a key support zone, suggesting a breakout strategy.

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Market Sentiment

• The bearish setup suggests that sellers are gaining control. The break below the sell stop level (1.08164) would confirm this sentiment.

• The stop loss is placed above a resistance level, ensuring the trade is protected against false breakouts.

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Trade Plan

• Entry: Place a sell stop order at 1.08164.

• Stop Loss: Set at 1.08750 to limit potential losses.

• Take Profit: Target 1.07621 for a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.

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Risk Management

• The distance between the entry (1.08164) and stop loss (1.08750) is approximately 58.6 pips.

• The distance between the entry (1.08164) and take profit (1.07621) is approximately 54.3 pips.

• Ensure proper position sizing to maintain a balanced risk-to-reward ratio.

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Conclusion

The EUR/USD pair is showing bearish momentum on the H4 chart. A sell stop order at 1.08164, with a stop loss at 1.08750 and a take profit at 1.07621, aligns with the technical setup. Monitor the price action closely for confirmation of the breakout below the sell stop level.

Recommended Lot Size

Trading is all about statistics.

While we can experience winning streaks, we can also suffer from losing streaks.

As such, we should always size each trade to withstand losing streaks (if any).

It's widely recommended that you should not risk more than 2% of your capital for each trade.

We believe it's easier to control your lot size by limiting your lot sizing to 0.01 for every $500 in your account.

So if you have $5000, then risk no more than 0.10 lot size per trade.

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If you spot a mistake especially when it comes to the price, please use common sense and check the chart.

We wish you good luck and good profit for this trade idea.

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