GBP/USD Daily Price Forecast – 8th August 2025

Chart Breakdown

• Timeframe: H4 (4-hour)

• Indicators:

  • Two moving averages (likely yellow: 50 EMA and red: 200 EMA, standard settings)

  • Key trade levels marked:

    • Buy Stop: 1.34569

    • Take Profit (TP): 1.35127

    • Stop Loss (SL): 1.34001

Trend Analysis

• Recent Price Action:

  • GBP/USD has rebounded sharply from recent lows, breaking above the yellow moving average and currently challenging the red moving average (which often serves as dynamic resistance).

  • The uptrend from recent lows is healthy, with consecutive higher highs and higher lows indicating bullish strength.

• Moving Averages:

  • Price has crossed above the yellow MA (shorter term) and is now hovering just below or near the red MA (longer term).

  • If price closes convincingly above the red MA, this could reinforce the bullish scenario, suggesting that the trend is shifting from bearish to bullish.

Key Levels and Trade Setup

• Buy Stop @ 1.34569:

  • Entry is planned just above the most recent local highs/zone of short-term resistance. This level is strategic to confirm bullish momentum continuation.

• Take Profit (TP) @ 1.35127:

  • This TP target is set at a resistance area previously tested, where selling may re-emerge.

• Stop Loss (SL) @ 1.34001:

  • Placed just below recent swing lows and below both moving averages, giving the setup room to breathe in case of volatility.

Risk/Reward Calculation:

• Risk: 1.34569 - 1.34001 = ~57 pips

• Reward: 1.35127 - 1.34569 = ~56 pips

• R/R Ratio: ~1:1

Technical Signals

• Bullish Momentum:

  • Price setting higher highs and higher lows.

  • Aggressive retracement and recovery indicate bulls are taking control.

• MA Test:

  • Price action near the red MA (potential resistance); a break and close above it would be essential for more upside.

• Range Breakout Strategy:

  • The buy stop is placed to catch momentum if the range/consolidation to the upside breaks.

Potential Scenarios

• Bullish Breakout:

  • If GBP/USD breaks above 1.34569, expect a push toward 1.35127 as bullish momentum takes over. This zone may see profit-taking or reversal.

• Reversal Failure:

  • If unable to break above the resistance and falls back below 1.34001, the bullish thesis is invalidated, and the pair could revisit recent support or resume the downtrend.

Additional Considerations

• Fundamentals:

  • Watch out for GBP economic data, USD factors (Fed decisions, CPI, etc.), and global risk sentiment, as these often cause volatility.

• Dynamic Resistance:

  • The red MA could slow the advance; only a strong breakout above will confirm further bullishness.

• News Catalysts:

  • Any surprise news can impact GBP/USD heavily - have alerts set at key levels.

Summary

• GBP/USD has shown a strong bullish rebound, attempting to reclaim territory above key moving averages.

• The trade plan focuses on buying a breakout above 1.34569, targeting 1.35127 with risk managed below 1.34001.

• Watch for a confirmed close above the red MA for further confirmation and consider macro/fundamental context alongside this technical view.