GBP/USD Daily Price Forecast – 8th September 2025

GBPUSD Technical Analysis — Structure, Levels, and Trade Scenarios

Market structure

• Trend context: After a sharp selloff, price carved a base and began printing higher lows, then impulsively expanded to the upside. The current phase shows a pullback and compression under nearby resistance—typical of a potential breakout–continuation setup if buyers maintain control.

• Swing map: The recent impulse high sits near 1.3550–1.3555. Pullback lows are clustering above 1.3470–1.3480, preserving a short-term bullish structure.

Key levels from the chart

• Buy stop: 1.35061 — placed marginally above local resistance to require confirmation.

• Stop loss: 1.34773 — below the most recent higher-low cluster and intra-day demand.

• Take profit: 1.35427 — inside the prior reaction zone/supply just below 1.3550.

• Intermediate zones:

  • Support: 1.3475–1.3485 (pullback demand and invalidation zone)

  • Mid-range resistance: 1.3500–1.3510 (breakout trigger band)

  • Overhead supply: 1.3535–1.3555 (TP area and prior spike high)

Price action read

• Impulse and retrace: The strong bullish spike followed by controlled pullback suggests buyers remain interested, but supply is active near 1.3535–1.3555.

• Consolidation: Recent candles show narrowing range, indicating energy build-up. Breaks from such compression often travel to the next liquidity pocket.

• Liquidity cues:

  • Buy-side liquidity likely rests above 1.3510–1.3520 (recent lower highs inside the pullback) and above 1.3550 (spike high).

  • Sell-side liquidity likely rests below 1.3480 and 1.3465; a sweep there could fuel a deeper retrace.

Scenario planning

Bullish continuation (primary)

• Trigger: A decisive push through 1.3506 with follow-through (full-bodied H1 close or a break-and-hold on retest).

• Path: Break 1.3506 → fill pocket into 1.3520–1.3530 → test supply at 1.3535–1.3550.

• Targets:

  • TP1: 1.3520–1.3525 (take partials to pay risk if momentum is average)

  • TP2: 1.3542 (chart-defined TP)

  • Stretch: 1.3560–1.3570 if 1.3555 breaks cleanly on volume and closes.

• Management ideas:

  • Consider moving to breakeven only after a higher low forms above 1.3506 or after an H1 close above 1.3520.

  • If the breakout prints a long upper wick and immediate rejection, avoid chasing; wait for a clean retest of 1.3506–1.3510.

Bearish fade / deeper pullback (alternative)

• Trigger: Failure to hold above 1.3500 with a heavy rejection candle, or an H1 close below 1.3477.

• Path: Loss of 1.3477 opens room to probe 1.3460–1.3450; if that folds, 1.3420–1.3430 is next structural interest.

• Bearish signs:

  • Consecutive H1 closes below 1.3480.

  • Lower highs forming beneath 1.3500 with expanding bearish candle bodies.

Invalidation and risk

• Structural invalidation for the long idea sits beneath 1.3477. An H1 close below this level weakens the bullish thesis and favors standing aside or reassessing from lower demand.

• The current plan’s risk-to-reward is roughly 1:1.27 (about 28.8 pips risk for 36.6 pips target). It’s a modest but repeatable edge when executed consistently.

Quality-of-break checklist

• Body over wick: Prefer a breakout with a solid close above 1.3506 rather than a wick-only tag.

• Retest behavior: A controlled pullback that holds 1.3506–1.3510 after breakout strengthens confidence.

• Session timing: Breakouts during London open/overlap tend to carry better follow-through than late-session drifts.

What would strengthen the long case

• A higher low on M15/H1 printed above 1.3490–1.3495 before or after the break.

• Momentum sequence: expansion candle → brief consolidation → continuation candle through 1.3520.

What would weaken it

• Multiple upper-wick rejections inside 1.3520–1.3530 with rising bearish momentum.

• A liquidity sweep above 1.3506 that immediately closes back inside the range on H1.

Summary

• Bias: Constructive above 1.3477 with a breakout-continuation setup through 1.3506 targeting 1.3520–1.3542, and potentially 1.3560 on extension.

• Invalidated on sustained H1 trade below 1.3477, opening room for a deeper pullback into 1.3460–1.3450 and possibly 1.3420–1.3430.