NZD/JPY Daily Price Forecast – 2nd October 2025

📊 Market Overview

The NZD/JPY pair remains in a strong downward channel, with sellers dominating throughout September. Price recently bounced from the 85.20 support zone, hinting at short-term relief after an extended bearish run.

On the H1 chart, the focus is now on whether the pair can break above 85.864 to confirm a corrective rebound. A failure here would likely see sellers regain control, pushing back toward support.

🔎 Technical Analysis

1. Trend Bias

• Long-Term: Bearish — consistent lower highs and lower lows remain intact.

• Short-Term: Tentative bullish correction possible if price clears 85.864 resistance.

2. Key Price Levels

• Resistance / Breakout Level: 85.864 – key test for bulls.

• Take Profit Zone: 85.586 – first upside target within corrective structure.

• Support / Stop Loss Zone: 85.239 – invalidation level; break here signals fresh downside continuation.

3. Price Action Clues

• Buyers showed interest at the 85.20 lows with strong rejection wicks.

• Consolidation candles are clustering near resistance, suggesting a build-up of pressure.

• A breakout candle above 85.864 could trigger a quick retracement rally.

4. Risk/Reward Setup

• Entry: 85.864

• Target: 85.586 (~72 pips potential)

• Stop: 85.239 (~62 pips risk)

• Risk-to-Reward: Around 1:1, suitable for a short-term corrective play rather than a long-term trend reversal.

📈 Technical Outlook (2nd Oct 2025)

⚠️ If NZD/JPY fails to clear 85.864 today, sellers may use the rejection to drive price back toward the 85.20 lows.

🌍 Fundamental Drivers

• NZD: Dovish RBNZ outlook and weak commodity exports continue to weigh on Kiwi.

• JPY: Yen remains supported by safe-haven flows, although BOJ’s ultra-loose policy limits upside strength.

• Global Sentiment: Any spike in risk aversion would likely renew JPY strength and pressure NZD/JPY lower.

✅ Conclusion

For 2nd October 2025, NZD/JPY is still firmly in a bearish trend but showing early signs of a possible corrective rebound. A break above 85.864 opens room toward 85.586, but if price fails at resistance, expect a retest of 85.239–85.20 support.

👉 Traders should remain cautious, treating any upside as a short-term correction, not a full trend reversal.